Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: July 17

July 17, 2026

Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: July 17 – 23, 2026

Issued 11 PM July 16. Note: Forecast based on late Thursday Evening (7/16) data. While broad patterns usually hold, forecast shifts occur—verify conditions before heading out.

Weekend: Small and Hot Fri/Sat; More S Windswell Sun

Mon-Wed: Renewed S Windswell Tue/Wed

Looking Ahead: Easing but Watching Front/Variable Winds Late Week

Best Windows of Forecast: Early with Big Boards for Weekend; Mid-Week S Pulse

Legend: 🟢 Fun/Clean | 🟡 Marginal/Semi Bumpy | 🔴 Choppy

(Note: Split quality colors represent AM / PM sessions)

Friday Through Sunday (7/17–7/19): Small S/SE Surf Fri/Sat; A Bit Stronger Sun

A weak offshore high pressure and inland troughing pattern will produce mostly 1–2′ (knee up to thigh high) S/SE windswell today, with no major changes into Saturday. Typical for mid-summer, mornings offer the cleanest windows before south-southwest to south winds ramp up and chop up the afternoon. The tide is low just before sunrise, making the early incoming push the best bet for high-volume boards. Many spots will swamp out around the 10:25 AM high tide on Friday (11:24 AM Saturday). A late afternoon low tide window exists but will likely be blown out. Expect more uncomfortable heat, with heat indexes hitting 104°–107°.

Model guidance shows a more pronounced south-southwest flow developing Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, look for the surf to trend up into the 2–3′ (knee to waist high) range, with a few bigger peaks possible at better spots by afternoon. Winds will be best in the morning but there will likely be a bit more sideshore texture earlier in the day on Sunday compared to Friday/Saturday. Either way, target the early hours before conditions blow out.

7/17 – 7/18 (Friday and Saturday): 1–2′ (Around knee high, thigh sets for better spots) — Best early before SSW winds pick up. Hot. Quality: 🟢 / 🟡
7/19 (Sunday): 2–3′ (Knee-Waist High, Plus Sets Late) — Surf bumps up in size a little. Cleanest early but sideshore texture starts earlier in the day before getting blown out in the PM. Quality: 🟡 / 🔴

Looking Ahead: Another Midweek S Swell Pulse

The pressure pattern weakens slightly into Monday as a decaying front drops down from the north. This causes S/SE windswell to back off a notch into the knee-to-thigh high zone, though top spots may hold onto occasional waist-high peaks. Lighter winds should grant a cleaner morning window that syncs up nicely with a 6:40 AM low tide. However, afternoon south-southwest winds will remain problematic along with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Indications point to another upward pulse in summer S windswell Tuesday through Wednesday as the offshore Bermuda High interacts with another approaching front. This setup looks good for thigh-to-waist high surf, with the potential for stomach-to-chest high sets by late Tuesday into Wednesday if recent models hold true. Early mornings will be cleanest, but again the mornings may see sideshore texture begin earlier than normal (similar to Sunday).

By Thursday, the windswell looks to ease back a notch into the knee-to-thigh high plus range (lingering waist sets early). Winds should back off but may turn highly variable around the remaining front.

7/20 (Monday): 1–2’+ (Knee-to-thigh high, occasional waist-high sets at top spots) — Best early. Quality: 🟢 / 🟡
7/21 (Tuesday): 2–3′ (Thigh-to-waist high) — Windswell begins ticking back up with potential for larger sets late. Light morning winds trend stronger SSW in the afternoon. Quality: 🟢 / 🟡
7/22 (Wednesday): 2–3’+ — Lingering south windswell with waist-plus peaks possible but stronger SSW flow. Quality: 🟡 / 🔴
7/23 (Thursday): 1–2’+ — Easing south windswell, still thigh-to-waist high peaks possible. Winds potentially improve around a front, but confidence remains low this far out. Quality: 🟢

Tropical Update

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-pressure system expected to form in the northeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend, potentially tracking toward the southeast coast early next week. It currently carries a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. While it isn’t expected to serve up significant surf for our local beaches right now, it always bears watching.

So far, the Atlantic season is sitting below historical averages—typically we’ve seen about six days with a named storm by this date, whereas we are currently sitting at less than one day. While signs still point toward a below-average hurricane season overall due to El Niño, that does not equal a bad surf season.

This graph is meant to show a measure of the normal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic (green line) compared to what has actually happened this year (blue line). This shows we are below normal for the season so far, but there is a long season to go. More info on this can be found from Colorado State.