Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: September 18 – September 24, 2026

Conditions  Clean  ·  Semi Bumpy  ·  Choppy

Each day’s pill is split — left half is the morning session, right half is the afternoon.

Issued 6:00 AM September 18. Note: Forecast based on early Friday morning (9/18) data. While broad patterns usually hold, forecast shifts occur—verify conditions before heading out.

Friday–Sunday 9/18–9/20 — Fading ESE Swell, Shifting Winds but Minor Swell

Friday has a small ESE swell registering on local buoys this morning, translating to knee, occasionally thigh high surf. Winds are favorable (light offshore) and the tide was low around 6:50 AM, so there should be a few waves for the bigger boards on the incoming this morning. Look for many spots to get swamped and too deep as we near the ~1:30 PM high. SSW winds will also pick up some this afternoon, adding bump to the surf.

Saturday sees the ESE swell fade further, with mostly knee high surf. Winds should be light early but expect E winds around 10 mph for the afternoon as a front slides south. A couple hours either side of the morning low tide (~8:00 AM) will likely be best, again with the best winds early around dawn.

Sunday brings light to moderate NE to E winds around high pressure north of the area, producing semi clean trending bumpy surf around knee high.

Monday–Thursday 9/21–9/24 — Small ESE/SE Swell Mon–Tue, Watching Later Week

A weak pressure pattern will yield light morning winds on Monday. That leads to clean morning surf with knee to thigh high ESE swell expected. SE breezes around 6–11 mph add a little bump for the afternoon. Favorable morning lower tides (low around 10:00 AM) will put the best conditions roughly between 7:30 and 11:30 AM.

While no significant changes are expected for Tuesday, a front moving through by Wednesday is worth watching. Longer range models are showing potential for low pressure to develop along the front offshore as we move into the second part of the week. There is some indication this could lead to a bit more ENE/E swell late next week, but confidence is currently low on specifics. We have shown a very modest trend up in surf heights for now, but again confidence is low.

Tropical Update

The tropics remain unseasonably quiet, and the lack of a hurricane this deep into the season is unprecedented even during a strong El Niño year. The Atlantic has never gone this late without its first hurricane in the satellite era — the old record was September 11, set in both 2002 and 2013. Accumulated Cyclone Energy sits at 4.4 units against a climatological 73.7 for September 17, about 6% of normal and the lowest since 1941.

That said, there is a weak area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of Bermuda with a 10% chance of development. At this point it does not look to send an appreciable swell to the area.