Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: Jan 16–23, 2026

January 16, 2026

Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: Jan 16–23, 2026
Issued 6:20 AM Jan 16. Note: Forecast based on 6:00 AM Friday (1/16) data. While broad patterns usually hold, the forecast can shift—please verify local conditions before heading out.
By Mark Willis

Key Points:
– Today: Traces-Weekend: Mostly Knee High Or Less
– Early Week: Cold; Mostly Small Surf Continues
– Mid-Late Week: Slight Increase In ESE Swell

WB Surf Forecast Table
Quality Key: Green=Fair/Good, Yellow=Marginal, Red=Poor/Flat

Today through Sunday (1/16–1/18): Mostly Small Scale Surf

Buoy 41110 is checking in about 2ft at 3s from the WNW this morning with just a trace of underlying ESE swell. This does not bode well for today’s surf potential, despite the offshore flow and clean conditions. Expect mostly traces today in the shin-high zone or less. High pressure moves offshore over the weekend as the next front approaches. While this at one point had potential for snow, it now looks like a rain event for our area on Sunday. Expect knee-high surf at best, with SW winds Saturday shifting NW on Sunday.

1/16: Flat to shin high traces. Clean with light to moderate NW winds early, shifting SW later in the day. High 47°F .
1/17: 1–2’ shin to knee high S/SE swell. Late morning/early afternoon lower tide is likely the only option. Moderate SW winds and semi-clean conditions. High 63°F.
1/18: Ankle to shin high traces (0.5–1.5′), with winds trending NW and clean conditions. Rain likely (90% chance). High 50°F .

Looking Ahead: Small Surf into Next Week; Watching ESE Swell

Colder air moves in again on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be offshore on Monday (MLK Holiday), making for clean conditions if you want to get wet despite the tiny surf—but watch out for the early high tide. Tuesday sees developing N/NE winds with renewed cooler weather and minor surf.

A modest increase in mid-period ESE swell is a decent bet for mid to late next week, generated by strong high pressure well offshore in the North Central Atlantic. This should produce periods of rideable surf in the 1.5–3’ zone on the face (knee-thigh high with occasional waist high sets).

Monday (1/19): Sunny and cold. Clean traces to knee-high. High 50°F .
Tuesday (1/20): High 43°F . Surf 1–2′ (shin to knee high) but mostly poor with sideshore NE winds developing.
Wednesday (1/21): High 52°F . ESE energy begins to fill in in the knee-thigh high zone. Potential for diminishing winds.
Thursday (1/22): Potential for favorable winds and 2–3′ (thigh-waist high) ESE pulse. Worth watching for a session. High 60°F.
Friday (1/23): ESE swell continues in the 2’+ range. Winds highly uncertain at this time. High near 55°F.

Watching for strong high pressure to develop over the North Central Atlantic through the weekend/early next week which should allow for some rideable ESE swell mid to late next week (Jan 21–23).

Final Thoughts

Minor surf overall through the weekend and early next week, but there will be periods of clean conditions—think lower tide longboard waves at best. Slightly stronger ESE swell is worth watching January 21–23, with Thursday looking like the standout window.

Water Temp: The water is currently 51.6°F at Johnnie Mercers Pier. Projections suggest it could dip into the upper 40s/near 50 early next week given the cold air moving back into the region.