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Wrightsville Beach Surf Outlook: October 10–October 16, 2025 by Mark Willis

Issued 9:15 PM October 9. Note: This content will become less and less relevant with time. Due to the very dynamic nature of the upcoming coastal storm, we strongly recommend monitoring additional sources for the upcoming forecast as changes are likely as we move through the weekend.

• • Plenty of ENE/E windswell through Fri/Sat but with NE wind issues for many
  • Potential for cleaner surf Sun/Mon/Tue as low pressure lifts N of the area, but wind forecast is subject to change
  • Longer period swell from Jerry due later in weekend/early next week as well
  • Easing surf through mid next week

Discussion:

Note: With highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s/low 60s, water temps are likely to drop a little over the next week from their current ~72 degree mark. Consider a spring suit next.

Yet another period with active weather and waves is shaping up for the greater Cape Fear region. Strong high pressure north of the area is the culprit for the moderate NE/E windswell and choppy conditions currently reaching the area (7ft @ 6s at buoy 41110). This continues through Friday and Saturday along with moderate to strong NE winds. Look for plenty of waist to head high surf but with choppy conditions except for the most protected of spots. Smaller, cleaner waves will be found at the more south facing spots.

The forecast gets interesting again as we move through the end of the weekend. Most of the major models are suggesting that a non-tropical area of low pressure will develop just offshore Saturday and Sunday while lifting N/NE. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast to intensify slightly while making its closest approach (still well off the SE US coast). This will lead to continued surf in the 3–4’ zone on the face, with the potential for head high ranged sets at standout breaks as the longer period swell from Jerry mixes in with lingering windswell through Sunday. More importantly, there is also some potential winds will trend more NW on Sunday as the nor’easter type low close to home lifts north. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the low pressure system nearby, however, and the wind forecast is subject to change. Either way, it appears likely that spots that have some protection from N winds will see the most favorable conditions. It should be noted that some models develop a secondary low just off our coast later this weekend, which would lead to persistent N/NE winds which would be problematic at the more east facing beaches.

Overall Best Weekend Window: Sunday, but watching the low pressure system just offshore/near the coast closely. Think N wind protected spots for the best chance for favorable conditions.

The Nor’easter/Low pressure system is forecast to move up near or just offshore the Mid Atlantic Coast through early next week (again with some chance a secondary circulation will linger further south). This should allow favorable winds/conditions to prevail, along with slowly fading surf. At this point fun sized thigh-waist-chest high surf is expected to continue on Monday, before continuing to slowly drop through the middle of the week. We’ll again need to watch for a trailing secondary low keeping N winds around a little longer, but if that occurs, you’ll want to think of protected/more south facing locations. If the GFS scenario pans out, we’d have a much better chance of NW winds and more widespread, cleaner surf Sun/Mon.

Smaller surf looks to prevail through the end of next week, but we’ll be watching for our next front and also what happens with the low after it moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast for any renewed surf potential. Stay tuned!

Next Week Bottom Line/Potential Best Days: Lingering fun sized surf into early week, with Monday looking like the best bet at this point. Watch the forecast closely as there is some potential the wind forecast will change. You may need to do some hunting around if N/NE winds linger longer.